China to keep monetary policy stable（中國(guó)將保持穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策）

　　China to keep monetary policy stable

　　July main inflation barometer up 2.7% year-on-year; high pork prices to blame

　　By OUYANG SHIJIA

　　China will likely keep its monetary policy stable and on target in the second half as consumer inflation is expected to rise mildly within a reasonable range in the rest of the year, experts said.

　　Their comments came as China's consumer inflation accelerated to the highest level in two years, largely driven by surging pork prices, but it still managed to come in weaker than expected in July.

　　China's consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation, rose 2.7 percent year-on-year in July, following a 2.5 percent rise in the previous month, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

　　The growth in core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is deemed as a better gauge of the supply-demand relationship in the economy, came in at 0.8 percent year-on-year in July, following a 1 percent rise the previous month.

　　Zheng Houcheng, director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, said the rise in July CPI was largely due to soaring pork prices as some producers were reluctant to sell hogs ready for the market.

　　Looking ahead, Zheng expects consumer prices may fluctuate in August, and the rise in CPI may struggle to surpass 3 percent year-on-year during the month.

　　Compared with soaring prices in other major economies, China's overall price levels are generally stable. Inflation hit a 40-year high in June in the United States, as the consumer price index rose 9.1 percent year-on-year, said the US Department of Labor.??

　　Tommy Wu, lead economist at Oxford Economics, a think tank, said the spillover effect of rising global food prices on China's domestic food costs will also likely be modest, given China's self-sufficiency in staple grains in the near term.

　　With limited pass-through of factory-gate inflation and energy prices on consumer prices and subdued core inflation due to weak domestic demand, Wu said his team expects China's consumer inflation to remain below the 3 percent target for 2022.

　　Against such a backdrop, he said monetary easing will remain targeted to support credit to small and medium-sized enterprises, manufacturing, real estate and infrastructure financing.

　　A report released on Wednesday by the People's Bank of China said China may face mounting inflationary pressure at home due to factors including a recovery in consumer demand, rising pork prices and high energy and raw material costs, and imported inflationary pressures will continue to exist.

　　Looking into the second half, the nation's central bank said China's consumer inflation will rise at a faster pace than the level in the first half, and the CPI rise may exceed 3 percent in some months.

　　According to the report, China will continue to keep prudent monetary policy and refrain from adopting a deluge of strong stimulus policies. And it will keep an eye on the inflation situation both at home and abroad.??

　　Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, said the country's economy is gradually rebounding amid recovering market demand, as many sectors included in core CPI jumped on a monthly basis.

　　For instance, NBS data showed prices of plane tickets, hotel accommodations and tourism increased by 6.1 percent, 5 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, in July on a monthly basis.?

　　Even though China is facing inflationary pressure from soaring pork prices in the coming months, Wen said the government's recent moves to stabilize supplies and prices will help ensure market orderliness.

　　As for the rest of the year, he said his team expects the CPI to rise modestly and the producer price index to continue to trend down, which will not put extra pressure on monetary policy easing.

　　According to the NBS, China's PPI, which gauges factory-gate prices, increased 4.2 percent year-on-year in July after a 6.1 percent rise in June, cooling to the lowest level since February 2021. On a monthly basis, the PPI declined 1.3 percent in July.?

　　Yin Yue, a macroeconomics analyst at Shanghai-listed Hongta Securities, agreed that inflation will not put much pressure on China's monetary easing, especially considering the relatively low core CPI level and the slowdown in PPI growth.?

　　Looking ahead, Feng Mohan, a macroeconomics researcher at Beijing FOST Economic Consulting Co Ltd, said he will not rule out the possibility that the PPI will decline in the second half amid weakening global demand, a gloomy global outlook and a high base effect from the previous year.

　　中文譯稿：

　　中國(guó)將保持穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策

　　受豬肉漲價(jià)因素影響，7月份CPI同比上漲2.7%

　　中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)記者歐陽(yáng)詩(shī)嘉

　　專(zhuān)家指出，下半年中國(guó)通貨膨脹水平有望在合理區(qū)間內(nèi)溫和上升，穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策將持續(xù)精準(zhǔn)有力。

　　他們發(fā)表上述言論之際，中國(guó)通脹上升到了兩年以來(lái)的最高水平，很大程度上是受到豬肉價(jià)格上漲的影響，但是通脹水平仍控制在7月的預(yù)期值以內(nèi)。

　　國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局周三發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，7月份，衡量通脹的主要指標(biāo)全國(guó)居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)（CPI）同比上漲2.7%，而6月份的CPI同比上漲2.5%。

　　7月份，核心CPI同比上漲0.8%，而上月同比上漲1.0%。核心CPI不包括波動(dòng)性較大的食品和能源價(jià)格，被認(rèn)為是衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)供需關(guān)系的更好指標(biāo)。

　　英大證券研究所所長(zhǎng)鄭后成表示，在前期企業(yè)壓欄惜售以及二次育肥推遲出欄的背景下，豬肉價(jià)格大幅上行，對(duì)7月CPI同比上漲形成拉動(dòng)。

　　展望未來(lái)，鄭后成預(yù)計(jì)，8月CPI當(dāng)月同比大概率在7月的基礎(chǔ)上震蕩，破“3”概率較低。

　　與其他主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體的物價(jià)普遍大漲相比，中國(guó)的物價(jià)總體保持穩(wěn)定。美國(guó)勞工部的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國(guó)6月份通脹率升至9.1%，創(chuàng)40年來(lái)新高。

　　牛津經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家胡東安認(rèn)為，考慮到中國(guó)主糧短期內(nèi)能自給自足，國(guó)際市場(chǎng)糧食價(jià)格的上漲對(duì)中國(guó)糧價(jià)的溢出效應(yīng)是有限的。

　　胡東安稱(chēng)，由于工業(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠價(jià)格以及能源價(jià)格上漲對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)物價(jià)的傳導(dǎo)影響有限，再加上國(guó)內(nèi)需求不旺對(duì)核心CPI的抑制作用，他的團(tuán)隊(duì)預(yù)期2022年中國(guó)通脹率將保持在3%的目標(biāo)值以內(nèi)。

　　在這樣的背景下，胡東安表示中國(guó)將會(huì)保持精準(zhǔn)有力的貨幣政策，為中小企業(yè)、制造業(yè)、房地產(chǎn)和基建融資提供信貸支持。

　　中國(guó)人民銀行周三發(fā)布的報(bào)告指出，下一階段，受消費(fèi)需求復(fù)蘇回暖、新一輪豬肉價(jià)格上漲周期開(kāi)啟、能源和原材料成本仍處高位等因素影響，國(guó)內(nèi)結(jié)構(gòu)性通脹壓力可能加大，輸入性通脹壓力依然存在。

　　展望下半年，人民銀行指出，預(yù)計(jì)CPI漲幅將有所上行，中樞較上半年水平抬升，一些月份漲幅可能階段性突破3%。

　　央行報(bào)告指出，下一階段貨幣政策將堅(jiān)持穩(wěn)健取向，堅(jiān)持不搞“大水漫灌”、 不超發(fā)貨幣，同時(shí)密切關(guān)注國(guó)內(nèi)外通脹形勢(shì)變化。

　　中國(guó)民生銀行首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家溫彬指出，核心CPI多行業(yè)環(huán)比上漲，反映實(shí)體需求溫和復(fù)蘇，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在逐步回升。

　　舉例而言，國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)顯示，?7月份飛機(jī)票、賓館住宿和旅游價(jià)格環(huán)比分別上漲6.1%、5.0%和3.5%。

　　溫彬稱(chēng)，盡管隨著豬肉價(jià)格進(jìn)入回升周期后，未來(lái)數(shù)月中國(guó)通脹面對(duì)的壓力也在上升，但是政府近期保供穩(wěn)價(jià)的系列舉措將有助于保證市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定。

　　溫彬指出，他的團(tuán)隊(duì)預(yù)期未來(lái)CPI將溫和上升，同時(shí)，工業(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠價(jià)格指數(shù)將繼續(xù)保持連續(xù)回落態(tài)勢(shì)，通脹對(duì)貨幣政策不構(gòu)成較大壓力。

　　國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)顯示，7月份全國(guó)工業(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠價(jià)格指數(shù)(PPI)同比上漲4.2%，環(huán)比下降1.3%，已降至2021年3月以來(lái)的最低水平。而6月份PPI同比上漲6.1%。PPI是衡量工業(yè)企業(yè)產(chǎn)品出廠價(jià)格變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)和變動(dòng)程度的指數(shù)。

　　紅塔證券宏觀分析師殷越也認(rèn)為，市場(chǎng)不用太擔(dān)心物價(jià)上行會(huì)對(duì)當(dāng)前貨幣政策形成掣肘，尤其是考慮到核心CPI還較低，PPI同比后續(xù)還會(huì)下行。

　　展望未來(lái)，北京福盛德咨詢宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)研究員馮默涵表示，全球需求走弱導(dǎo)致快速進(jìn)入衰退的可能性比較大，而且面對(duì)去年同期高基數(shù)的效應(yīng)，他不排除PPI下半年轉(zhuǎn)負(fù)的可能性。